Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Another Idea to Boost the Economy that Won't Be Done

Mrs Merkel's Runabout: the BMW 320d SE Touring
Cars in Ireland are some of the most expensive in Europe. A BMW 320d SE Touring costs around €43,220k here.  In Germany, the list price is €37,400.  In Spain, €38,900.  In the UK, €35,200 (converted using xe.com) The additional cost is exclusively in taxes, which ultimately seem to make their way back to Germany anyway.  This year, we introduced a new vehicle registration system to accelerate the newness effect.  Back in 1987, the auto industry was delighted when the year of acquisition was stamped on every car; I am awaiting statistics but I do expect them to confirm that car sales rose at a rate higher than the expected rate.

Monday, April 22, 2013

Free Will, Human Rights and Abortion Law in Ireland

Savita Halappanavar: her death has
prompted fierce debate on abortion
legislation in Ireland
The recent tragic case of Savita Halappanavar has re-focused the spotlight in Ireland on our anachronistic abortion laws.  In that case, Ms Halappanavar died from septic shock during a miscarriage, when she was prevented from having a termination despite her having requested on on a number of occasions.  One doctor went so far as to say it was highly likely that she would have survived had she been granted her request for a termination.

Alongside the timeline of these tragic events, the Fine Gael / Labour coalition government on the back of their Programme for Government had agreed to legislate for the X-Case.  In that case, a young girl who had been the victim of rape was deemed to have a right to an abortion if there was "a real and substantial risk" to  her life.  Crucially, that risk included the risk of suicide.  While the government, and the population generally, are of a view that the "real and substantial risk" test was appropriate, the question of suicide was for many a step too far.  Some argued that no one could clinically diagnose such a risk, that it was entirely within the gift of the woman herself to declare such a risk, and therefore such a provision would be wide open to abuse.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The SIPTU Moment: Are We On The Brink of Industrial Armageddon?

Croke Park: Fine Stadium, No Deal.
The rejection of the Croke Park agreement, coming as it does the week of Margaret Thatcher's death, presents the government with a tremendous opportunity.  Combined with Labour's shattered confidence, here's what could happen now*.

Enda Kenny announces in the Dáil that he has formed an agreement with Micheal Martin (resurgent, forgiven, and hungry to get back into power) to form a Randian Correction Coalition that will over the next two years restore the fortunes of the country.  The alternative would be at least ten more years of pain. Ireland announces a unilateral re-designation of the national debt in its various layers, and enters negotiations with its debtors to formalise those arrangements.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

How to Butcher a Metaphor: The Cypriot Bail-In


So, let's get one thing straight. Cyprus is neither a bail-out, nor is it a bail-in. Either metaphor fails, and the tortured extension of the metaphor to 'bail-in' illustrates the poor grasp of language by a) the people who came up with it and b) the people (mostly journalists) who gaily leapt on it.

The first deployment of the metaphor was in relation to the 'bail-out' of Greece, then Ireland and others. The metaphor was OK - like a boat in trouble, taking on water, the troika were providing assistance in relieving the problem. In cash terms however it was a reversal - the cash was coming in to the country, while the water would have been hurled out of the boat. Nevertheless, the assistance (in terms of muscle for the bailing, so to speak) was inbound, so the metaphor was sustainable.


Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Neo-Feminist Nonsense

OMFG can you believe he said
that! Well, no, he didn't.
The manufactured outrage over Leo Varadkar's off the cuff comments in relation to personal insolvency legislation is another example of over the top, reactionary nonsense coming from the Women's lobby in Ireland.  It's about time that we all got a grip of ourselves and started being a little more sensible about things. Varadkar said that working for less money than the cost of childcare in order to keep a career going "a legitimate thing to do but if you can’t pay your mortgage as a result or you can’t buy your groceries as a result well then that’s something that needs to be taken into account in any insolvency arrangement.”  Cue public anguish and a complete distortion of a headline in the Irish Examiner screaming "VARADKAR: WOMEN TO CHOOSE CAREER OR MORTGAGE"

Ivana Bacik on Morning Ireland cried foul as it was not in the interests of the country to push women back out of the workforce.  Orla O'Connor from the National Women's Council said Varadkar's comments were anti-women, and anti-children.  Twitter, erm, melted.  It's entirely nonsense.



Monday, March 11, 2013

RTE Hypocrisy. Again.

The blood boils when it comes to RTE and its hypocrisy.  Claiming its place as a public service broadcaster, it distorts the private media and advertising markets, monsters the business, and - when attacked - claims public interest, like some Grand Poobah on a big solid gold throne.  This week, it's alcohol advertising.

Following a public health report which recommended banning advertising before 9 o'clock, RTE have stormed to the head of the opprobrium queue, claiming it simply couldn't work.  According to the report in the Irish Times, such a regulation would not work because it would only apply to Irish media; and because it would replace the old guidelines which require a 75% over-18 audience threshold before permitting alcohol advertising.  John Mulligan head of operations at RTE television, claimed that the new proposed rules would mean they could, in theory, place alcohol ads into the Toy Show.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

The Sindo Poll: An Inconvenient Truth

Fianna Fáil back in the lead, but
leadership is in short supply.
The Sunday Independent today published the second poll in just over a week to confirm the reinstatement of our erstwhile nemesis Fianna Fáil as the largest party in the land, coming as it did shortly after the Irish Times published broadly similar results.  In both instances, the don't know category was enormous, being 27% today and 34% last week, which gives some comfort.  But most don't know groups tend to break broadly with the trend, and therefore we need to presume that they're not all going to some consistent non-Fianna Fáil group, whether anti-bailout - a la Sinn Féin - or conservative pro-European - a la Fine Gael. Labour, I'm afraid, is indistinct.